RESEARCH

The Impact of Autonomous Trucking: A Case-Study of Ryder’s Dedicated Transportation Network

This study presents the idea of an Autonomous Transfer Hub Network (ATHN) for freight transportation that combines autonomous trucks on highways with regular trucking operations for first and last miles.
The analyses indicate that the ATHN could reduce freight costs in the range of 27% to 38% for a small ATHN and 29% to 40% for a more extensive network.

The unemployment rate for disabled people is over double the national unemployment rate.
Removing transportation barriers for disabled individuals through AVs could create 4.4 million jobs for people with disabilities, and 9.2 million total jobs across the US. This increase in economic activity could represent $868 billion in US GDP and $1.6 trillion in US output.
The projected increase in employment represents a 4.1% increase in the US economy, while GDP, output, and income in the U.S. increase by 3.8%, 5.7%, and 2.0% respectively.
AV adoption by individuals with disabilities is projected to increase federal tax revenue by almost 2%, or $93 billion.

The AV industry supports workers with a range of skill levels, with many jobs accessible to workers without a college degree.
AV industry jobs typically pay above U.S. median wage, and AVs may create more high-skilled and specialized jobs in the industry.
The U.S. has the potential to establish itself as a major exporter of AVs.
AVs have the potential to catalyze economic growth in adjacent industries

Deployment of long-haul automated trucking in California would contribute to an annual increase in real GDP and welfare.
Automated trucking could increase the output of the “For-hire” trucking industry by about 4%. Further, contrary to some beliefs, it would preserve long-haul trucking jobs, with minimal layoffs or unemployment rates.
California’s total employment would increase with automated long-haul trucking.

Productivity enhancements from automating long-haul trucking could increase GDP, capital, employment, wages, and welfare that could be monetized into billions of dollars. These economic benefits can likely be achieved without mass lay-offs of drivers.
Employment across all trucking sectors in the U.S. would increase with 26,400-35,100 jobs per year on average.
Automated long-haul trucking would increase annual earnings for all industry workers in the U.S. by more than $200/year per worker.
Automated long-haul trucking would increase GDP by more than $68 billion over 30 years and contribute to an additional $111 billion in aggregate investment spending across the U.S. economy.

Regions with a distinctive position in the technologies and talent required for autonomous mobile systems are poised for large-scale economic development.
As the autonomous systems industry continues to expand, states are undertaking economic development and public policy actions to position themselves to capture market share. The results of state action are starting to be realized through the attraction of autonomous systems testing efforts to regions across the country as companies continue to advance their platforms.
The estimated direct employment footprint of Pittsburgh PA’s autonomous systems companies provide an estimated $651 million in labor income, $34.7 million in state and local tax revenues, and $126.7 million in federal tax revenues.

By 2026, $6.1 billion in estimated statewide R&D would create 39,000 direct jobs throughout Arizona. These jobs would generate $4.3 billion in economic output. The spinoff would produce an additional 35,000 jobs and $4.9 billion in economic output.
State and local governments would collect more than $350 million in tax revenues.
Fiscal impacts could accumulate to nearly $500 million by 2030.

AV delivery services are expected to create more demand and employment opportunities amongst retailers and in industries that support the development of AV delivery vehicles, such as vehicle manufacturing technology, supply chain, etc.
The delivery AV services sector is expected to make a total investment of $1.1 trillion by 2035.
The US economy could generate a total value of $4.1 trillion between 2025 - 2035 from direct economic impacts and broader benefits such as road safety benefits, time savings, and lower emissions.
Approximately 34 million job-years could be generated between 2025 and 2035.